Are you seeing an OBGYN or an RE? Your doctor should be doing monitoring ultrasounds even if it's your first cycle on meds.
Ultrasounds are more accurate than temps, especially on medicated cycles because the meds can mess with your temps. I would request another ultrasound in a few days to see how the 16mm follie is progressing. They should be able to tell if you have already ovulated. I have ovulated around the same time as normal on medicated cycles but some people find that it changes.
That being said, I did have 1 cycle on Femara where ultrasounds never showed any follies bigger than 8mm. The cycle was eventually cancelled due to no response but I did have a temp jump around the time I normally ovulate. (I started temping halfway through the cycle when I found out I wasn't responding). My doctor did not think I ovulated that cycle and offered me Provera but I wanted to see if I got my period on my own. I did, right when right when I expected it based on my normal LP. I had ultrasounds both before and after the temp spike that didn't show anything. I have no way of knowing for sure, but my guess is that I released a small, immature egg.